PREMIER Daniel Andrews will today announce his roadmap for the "modest easing" of restrictions and details of modelling of what he termed will become a pandemic for the unvaccinated once the state reaches 70 and 80 per cent immunisation rates.
He again confirmed that the statewide lockdowns will not be lifted tomorrow as planned and he met with chief health officer Brett Sutton last night to discuss ways in which there could be some relief with restrictions.
With Victoria at only 35 per cent of fully vaccinated people, Mr Andrews said it was too early to lift the lockdown, as such a move would have an overwhelming impact on an already strained hospital system.
"We will cope with unvaccinated people becoming infected and sick when we reach the 70 and most importantly the 80 per cent vaccination target," Mr Andrews said.
"Victoria and the nation has only 35 per cent double doses covered, the notion of trying to cope with a pandemic when you are open with very few rules and so very few are vaccinated, it would mean thousands of cases and many people in hospital."
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Stephen Warrillow, director of the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at the Austin Hospital, described what it's like for people who have been in ICU because of COVID.
He said people who need to be cared for by his staff means that "your life is on the line".
Yesterday figures report there are currently 52 Victorians in hospital, 16 in ICU (median age 49), and 15 on a ventilator (median age 48).
"It's like drowning on dry land, you just cannot get enough oxygen or enough air no matter how much you try – the relentless effort to breathe is overwhelming," Dr Warrillow said.
"This is until the point where the patient simply can't maintain it anymore and we have to put a tube down their throat, we anaesthetise them and put them on a ventilator.
"To do that to a human being is a big deal, it's hard for those patients and we do it when there's no alternative."
Dr Warrillow said other body organ systems get dragged down with the critical illness, with for example failing kidneys or hearts and the immune system itself can take a hit.
Stock standard ICU stays last for a couple of days but Dr Warrillow said COVID patients invariably have a long stay, taking more bed days and putting extra strain on the rest of the hospital systems.
"We will always provide critical care support to those who need it – we've got your back," he said.
"But if we are overwhelmed with demand by COVID patients that necessarily impacts on our ability to care for other patients, including patients who need elective heart surgery or semi–elective cancer surgery."
Dr Warrillow said people who are fully vaccinated may still get COVID but "you will not become critically ill, you are not going to die, and you are not going to need critical care support".
Statistics yesterday included 841 active cases in Victoria, 76 new cases (nine in the Shepparton cluster were all in quarantine) including 45 linked, 31 under investigation, and 36 in isolation.
Mr Andrews will speak with Prime Minister Scott Morrison later this week about elements of the national plan and how Victoria can play its role.
"The central fact of national plan is you can manage a pandemic when the unvaccinated is a small group," he said.
The latest released Wangaratta vaccination figures are 65.9 per cent first dose and 39.7pc second dose.
